Seminar den 17. marts 2014

Assessing the Impact of the Maternity Capital Policy in Russia

Abstract
With declining population and fertility rates below replacement levels, Russia is currently facing a demographic crisis. Starting in 2007, the federal government has pursued an ambitious pro-natalist policy. Women who give birth to at least two children are entitled to “maternity capital" assistance ($11,000). In this paper we estimate a structural dynamic programming model of fertility and labor force participation in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the policy. We find that the program increased long-run fertility by about 0.15 children per woman.

JEL classifcation: J13, C61
Key words: fertility; female labor supply; structural estimation; Russia

Contacts: Battista Severgnini and Cedric Schneider