Brown Bag Seminar with Jens Christensen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

The Department of Finance and FRIC are happy to announce the upcoming Brown Bag Seminar with Jens Christensen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Jens Christensen will present: 

A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income

Abstract:

To support the economy, the Federal Reserve amassed a large portfolio of long-term bonds. We assess the Fed's associated interest rate risk---including potential losses to its Treasury securities holdings and declines in remittances to the Treasury. Unlike past examinations of this interest rate risk, we attach probabilities to alternative interest rate scenarios. These probabilities are obtained from a dynamic term structure model that respects the zero lower bound on yields. The resulting probability-based stress test finds that the Fed's losses are unlikely to be large and remittances are unlikely to exhibit more than a brief cessation.